Investors and economists have been looking for signs that the Federal Reserve may reverse course and start to cut rates. One thing The Macro Compass Founder Alfonso Peccatiello is watching is U.S. core services inflation, ex-housing. Peccatiello notes that number, which is watched by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has declined substantially over the last few months, so “this idea that the Fed will only cut if a recession comes, that the Fed will wait for inflation to get to two percent before cutting, I think it’s a bit too far-fetched… they will look at cuts if core stick inflation continues on this downward trend.”