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Stocks Rally as Fed’s Rate Hikes Seen Near End: Markets Wrap

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Stocks Rally as Fed’s Rate Hikes Seen Near End: Markets Wrap

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(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose as investors reacted to the possible peak of the Federal Reserve’s historic tightening campaign and processed the latest major company earnings.

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Rates-sensitive real estate stocks led the advance in Europe’s Stoxx 600 index, with the gauge set to rise for a fourth day, its best run since July. US equity futures pointed to an extension of Wednesday’s gains on Wall Street. Asian stocks headed for their biggest gain in almost four months.

Novo Nordisk A/S rose after reporting that third-quarter sales surged amid the frenzy for its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs. Shell Plc gained after accelerating the pace of share buybacks as its third-quarter profit rose. Apple Inc. headlines the day’s line-up of US earnings due later.

While the Fed left the door open to another increase after pausing Wednesday, officials hinted that a run-up in long-term Treasury yields reduces the impetus to tighten policy further. The Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates at the highest level since 2008 later Thursday, amid evidence that the UK economy, labor market and inflation are weakening.

The dollar weakened and Treasuries steadied after Wednesday’s sharp gains.

US yields were already heading lower prior to the Fed decision after the government announced plans to borrow slightly less than expected over the next three months, reassuring investors worried about a deluge of debt issuance. A gauge of US factory activity also came in below expectations, adding to concerns of an economic downturn.

In Asia, the yen extended its gains from Wednesday, while the South Korean won led emerging-market currencies higher.

Meanwhile, the rebound in the region’s stocks signaled relief among investors fretting over the expectation of higher-for-longer US rates and hikes continuing into 2024. Asian stocks lost more than 12% from the end of July through October.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday noted that financial conditions have “tightened significantly in recent months driven by higher, longer—term bond yields, among other factors.” He repeatedly said the committee was moving “carefully,” a wording that often has signaled a low likelihood of any immediate change in policy, while adding that risks to the outlook have become more two-sided as the tightening campaign nears its end.

“Given that markets are starting to assume the Fed’s tightening cycle is over, markets may soon begin to discount an economic recovery to occur later in 2024,” said David Chao, Global Market Strategist, Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) at Invesco. “We expect a growing global risk appetite.”

US jobs data painted a mixed picture. There were more job openings than forecast, according to the latest JOLTS data, while ADP’s private payrolls figures showed fewer new roles than anticipated. Initial jobless claims figures will be released later Thursday.

Some observers cautioned against reading too much into Powell’s words. “I don’t think it’s the turning point just yet,” said Matthew Haupt, fund manager at Wilson Asset Management. “Fed is trying to hold curves where they are, so conditions don’t turn too easy too quick.”

In commodities, global benchmark Brent crude oil rose past $85 a barrel, after sliding around 5% over the previous three sessions.

Key events this week:

  • Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Thursday

  • Bank of England interest rate decision. Governor Andrew Bailey holds news conference, Thursday

  • US factory orders, initial jobless claims, productivity, Thursday

  • Apple earnings, Thursday

  • China Caixin services PMI, Friday

  • Eurozone unemployment, Friday

  • US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday

  • Canada employment report, Friday

Here are some of the major moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1% as of 8:15 a.m. London time

  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%

  • Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%

  • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed

  • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.4%

  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.6%

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%

  • The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0594

  • The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 150.45 per dollar

  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.3334 per dollar

  • The British pound was little changed at $1.2159

Cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $35,227.92

  • Ether fell 1.5% to $1,827.93

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.74%

  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.74%

  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.45%

Commodities

  • Brent crude rose 1.4% to $85.79 a barrel

  • Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,985.58 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Ishika Mookerjee and Winnie Hsu.

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©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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