TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan’s exports likely dropped in November for the third month in a row and at a much sharper pace, amid fears of a global recession, uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine, and COVID-19 flare-ups in China, according to a Reuters poll.
Taiwan, a global hub for chip production and a key supplier to Apple Inc (NASDAQ:), is one of Asia’s leading exporters of technology goods. The trade data is seen as an important gauge of world demand for tech gadgets.
Exports last month were estimated to have dropped 6.7% from a year earlier, a Reuters poll of 16 analysts showed on Monday, faster than the 0.5% contraction in October.
The export forecasts varied widely, suggesting a contraction of between 0.67% and 10.7%, reflecting uncertainties over the global economy, supply chain disruptions due to pandemic lockdowns and power shortages in China, as well as the fallout of Russia and Ukraine war.
Taiwan’s finance ministry had predicted November exports could contract in a range of 5% to 8% from a year earlier.
Separately, the consumer price index was expected to have risen 2.5% in November from a year earlier, slower than the 2.72% in October, according to the poll.
The inflation data will be released on Tuesday followed by the trade data on Wednesday.
(Poll compiled by Veronica Khongwir and Carol Lee; Reporting by Ben Blanchard)